India set to become major global military power

Summary: According to a new study, India is set to become a major global military power by the year 2045. India is set to have the world’s third largest defence expenditure at $654bn, behind the US and China. In addition, China is set to match the US for defence spending by 2045 according to the Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2045 report published by the MOD.

Global strategic trends

The paper is based on inputs from a range of individuals and global institutions, including India’s Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, United Services Institute and the Vivekananda International Foundation. It looks at a range variables, including energy, mineral resources, conflict and migration. According to the projection, the US and China are likely to have similarly sized defence budgets, potentially out-spending the rest of the world by 2045. India could have a defence budget equivalent to the EU’s total spending on defence.

Technology growth

In terms of technology, the report found that China and India are likely to at least match many western countries in terms of technological advancement by 2045, while surpassing the west in some select technical disciplines. “Although China’s military-industrial complex is unlikely to surpass the technological sophistication of the US by 2045, it may rival it in terms of size, as could India’s. Both India and China will probably seek to develop sizeable and technically advanced armed forces, including ocean-going navies, capable of delivering an enduring and capable maritime presence both regionally and further afield.”

Emerging defence opportunities

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